New Mexico — 3rd District

Rep. Ben Ray Luján and Republican Mark Ronchetti are facing off for US Senate in New Mexico .

. Luján has represented New Mexico's 3rd District since 2009, and has served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Assistant Democratic Leader.

So far, Luján has outraised Ronchetti by a nearly five-to-one ratio and is expected by win election to the seat in this largely Democratic state.

Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Luján is facing off against Republican Mark Ronchetti for US Senate in New Mexico.

The candidates:

Luján has represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, which includes the Northern part of the state and the state's capital of Santa Fe, for over a decade since 2009. He previously served on New Mexico's Public Regulation Commission.

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In the House, Luján has taken on leadership positions as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House' Democrats campaign arm, from 2015 to 2019, and now as the House Assistant Democratic Leader, making him currently the highest-ranking Hispanic member of the House.Luján announced his candidacy for US Senate in 2019 shortly after currentannounced his retirement, and quickly cleared the field to secure the Democratic nomination.

His campaign platform emphasizes investing in New Mexico families and improving opportunities and outcomes for children, strengthening New Mexico's economy, especially at New Mexico's bases and National Labs, and protecting New Mexico's natural resources and public lands.

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The stakes:

Ronchetti, the Republican candidate, is a former TV news reporter and meteorologist in Albuquerque. His campaign platform emphasizes lowering taxes and bringing more economic development to New Mexico, protecting 2nd Amendment rights, and bolstering security along the US' southern border.

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.

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Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote). New Mexico is a largely Democratic state, and Luján is currently favored to win election to the seat.

In the 2018 midterm elections as Luján was leading the DCCC, Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small flipped New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District back into Democratic hands, and is facing a tough reelection rematch against Republican Yvette Herrell.

The money race: Lujan has outraised Ronchetti by a nearly five-to-one-ratio, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Lujan has brought in $6.1 million, spent $3.2 million, and has over $3.3 million cash on hand. Ronchetti has raised $1.38 million, spent over $809,000, and has $570,000 in cash on hand.

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The most recent poll of the race conducted by the Albuquerque Journal and Research & Polling Inc . between August 26 and September 2 found Lujan leading Ronchetti by nine points, 49% to 40%.

What some of the experts say: The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race between Smith and Lewis as "safe Democratic" while Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates it "likely Democratic."

According to FiveThirtyEight, Luján has a 95% chance of defeating Ronchetti in November and is expected to receive 14.6% more of the popular vote than his opponents.