Democrats Declare Victory In Pennsylvania Seat Held By Republicans Since 1999
Democrats have declared victory in a razor-sharp special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, flipping a state House seat that has been held by the Republicans for almost 30 years.
Democrat Brandon Dukes is leading Republican Scott Timko by less than 100 votes in the state House's 12th District special election. Dukes has 8,434 votes (50.26 percent), while Timko received 8,346 (49.74 percent), according to unofficial election night returns.
Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatically triggered for a statewide race if the margin of victory is within 0.5 percent. Chantell McCurdy, the election bureau's director, told Newsweek that they've confirmed with their legal team that an automatic recount does not apply in this election.
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The apparent win adds to a series of Democratic overperformances in special elections across the country, buoying the party’s hopes of winning control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. It comes as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low, even among several key blocs that helped propel him back to the White House in 2024.
Dukes, who works as a commercial loan administrator at TD Bank, said he was “ecstatic” and “shocked” following the result, the Cranberry Eagle reported.
“I’m still processing this. We just flipped a Trump +18 seat, and we flipped a red seat that’s been red for almost 30 years,” he told the newspaper. “We made history.”
Timko, in a speech to supporters on Tuesday night, said "special elections sometimes produce special results,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported. “This is not the result we wanted, but let’s not lose sight of the goal. That’s November 3.”
Newsweek has contacted Dukes' campaign for further comment via email. Timko could not immediately be reached for comment.
Newsweek has contacted the Pennsylvania Republican Party for comment via an email sent outside regular business hours.
Josh Shapiro Celebrates the Win
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro—a Democrat seen as —celebrated the victory on Facebook, noting that President Donald Trump had won the district by 18 points in the 2024 election.
Dukes "just flipped a state House District in Butler County—a seat Trump carried by 18 points and the GOP state rep won by 30 points in 2024," Shapiro wrote.
"Pennsylvanians are rising up and using their power to combat the chaos, cruelty, and corruption—and we're not slowing down. I was proud to back Brandon. Congratulations State Representative-Elect Dukes—I look forward to getting stuff done together."
The seat became vacant after former Republican state representative Stephanie Scialabba resigned earlier this year. Before her, Republican Daryl Metcalfe had held the seat since 1999.
'Unprecedented Victory'
Eugene DePasquale, the chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said Dukes had won an “unprecedented and hard-fought victory” and thanked those who “worked tirelessly to help Democrats flip this historically deep-red seat.”
The result “not only shows what can be accomplished when Democrats are willing to fight everywhere, but it sets the stage for this November’s midterm elections,” DePasquale said in a statement.
“Pennsylvanians across the political spectrum are sick and tired of Republicans’ chaotic, corrupt, and cost-raising agenda — and they’re ready to reject them at the polls and elect Democrats up and down the ballot in historic fashion.”
He added: “With this momentum at our backs, Democrats will continue working to win up and down the ballot in every corner of the Commonwealth to expand our state House majority, flip control of the state Senate, and reelect Governor Josh Shapiro and Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis to secure the first Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg in more than 30 years.”
Looking to November
Democrats across the country pointed to the results as another indicator of a coming blue wave in November’s midterm elections.
Representative Ted Lieu of California wrote on X: “Congratulations to Brandon Dukes for flipping Pennsylvania State House District 12 (#HD12) from Red to Blue! In 2024, the Republican candidate won this district by 30 points and trump won it by 18 points.”
Lieu added: “November is coming.”
Pennsylvania Representative Chris Deluzio wrote: “Brandon Dukes flipped a Western PA Trump +18 seat tonight—this is a huge Butler County win! Brandon and @TheButlerDems showed that when we stand up and fight back, we win. I was proud to have campaigned with you, Brandon—congrats! Let’s do it again in November!”
Malcolm Kenyatta, vice chair of the Democratic National Committee and a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, said on X that Dukes “is the type of neighbors-first, transformative leader who we need in Harrisburg.
“Last night he flipped a ruby red Trump +18 district in yet ANOTHER major @TheDemocrats FLIP!”
And Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania called the result a “political earthquake.”
“I served in the PA House with Daryl Metcalfe. He sat only 10 feet from me. He was FAR RIGHT and MAGA before Trump,” he wrote on X. “The fact we just flipped this seat tonight is a political earthquake. #BlueWave.”
Prominent Republicans have yet to comment on the results on social media as of early Wednesday.
What Happens Next
It’s not immediately clear if an automatic recount will take place. But the winner of the special election will fill the House seat through the remainder of the term.
But both Dukes and Timko will face each other again in November as they compete to serve a full term in the state House.