TX-15 House 2026 Odds: De La Cruz Vs Pulido On Kalshi
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Updated August 20, 2026 · 12 min read by Sam Smith
Texas's 15th Congressional District was not supposed to be a race. Republican Monica De La Cruz flipped the Rio Grande Valley seat in 2022, won it again in 2024 by 14 points, and then watched the district get redrawn in 2025 to sit even more firmly in Republican territory at the presidential level. Yet the seat has become one of the most watched House contests in the country, because her challenger is Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy winning Tejano musician with near universal name recognition across South Texas, running in a midterm where the national mood has turned hard against the president's party. Kalshi lists the race as a pair of party contracts, and the two sides are trading almost even. We asked our AI panel to price the seat without letting any model see the market, then had each model read the others and revise. This page walks through where they landed, and why it is a long way fr…