Virginia’s 2nd District could decide House control
Two Virginia U.S. House races in particular will help determine whether Republicans retain or Democrats take the balance of power in the next Congress, and one of those races — in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District — will be heavily influenced by a distant war that’s going badly.
The Iran war has spiked energy costs worldwide, and it’s a factor that should especially benefit Democrats in this marquee race between two women with notable Navy portfolios running in a district filled with retired and active-duty military voters.
The demographics of the 2nd District and its neighboring 1st District are likely to make them excellent barometers for which party will prevail in the most intensely battled midterm elections in memory. In the 1st — a district that skews slightly Republican — Rob Wittman is vying for his 10th full term after winning the seat for the first time in a 2007 special election. His opponent, Democrat Shannon Taylor, is the longtime commonwealth’s attorney for Henrico County, in the Richmond suburbs, the district’s largest population cluster and home to swing voters.
The 2nd District is unique in Virginia. Home to the world’s largest U.S. Navy base in Norfolk and the Atlantic Fleet, it has one of the nation’s largest concentrations of active-duty and retired military voters. It supported Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger by eight percentage points in last fall’s election but favored Republican President Donald Trump by two-tenths of a percentage point in 2024.
Six months ago, the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran that have failed to dislodge its hardline Islamist regime or halt its quest for nuclear arms.
The first attacks killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His equally hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him. Resistance against the United States has only hardened in Iran and caused gasoline prices to soar as the continuing conflict brought critical seagoing shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle.
Ordinarily, foreign conflicts engender a rally-’round-the-flag sentiment in military communities. Still, the handling of the war by President Trump’s administration has created well-publicized hardships for our military, particularly sailors.
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The carrier USS Abraham Lincoln’s 5,000 sailors have spent a record of more than 250 consecutive days at sea without making land, prompting reports of a mental health crisis onboard and sailors attempting to jump overboard as conditions deteriorate. That, coupled with the depletion of critical munitions, resonates with those now serving and veterans.
That creates a challenging environment for Republicans in the 2nd.
Two years ago, Republicans hammered Democrats in the presidential and congressional races with gas prices near — or, in most places, exceeding — $4 per gallon following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This fall, expect Democrats to reciprocate with a vengeance and point to the bungled war — indisputably on the GOP’s watch — as the reason.
Republican voters are known for party loyalty. But the combination of a war going badly and consumers suffering as a result will weaken the reflexive support of some GOP voters, at least on the margins, if not more. It will be quite persuasive among independents.
Both candidates are well-suited to the 2nd District. Incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans was a Navy helicopter pilot who flew combat missions. Elaine Luria, the Democratic challenger who lost the seat to Kiggans in 2022, is a Naval Academy graduate with 20 years of Navy experience through six deployments.
They began their sprint toward November about even financially. As of July 1, both reported comparable cash on hand — $3.6 million out of $5.7 million raised over 18 months for Kiggans, and $3.5 million of $4.4 million raised in the same period for Luria, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Money will be no obstacle.
Through the general election, millions of dollars from national party organizations plus millions more in “dark money” from opaque, special-interest Super PACs will flood into this Tidewater region district. By Election Day, that money will target persuadable 2nd District voters with an unprecedented barrage of messaging, including broadcast and cable ads, social media content, texts to your mobile devices, and automated calls to landlines and cell phones.
Neither party is likely to have a conspicuous spending advantage. With the stakes of this race as high as they are, finishing second is not an option.
Mark J. Rozell is the dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University where he holds the Ruth D. and John T. Hazel Faculty Chair in Public Policy. His latest book (with John G. Milliken) is “The New Dominion: Twentieth-Century Elections That Shaped Modern Virginia” (UVA Press, 2023). Contact him at [email protected].
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