John James

U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, is leading by 17 points in new Republican primary polling.

The poll commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce and released April 28 showed James earning 37% support among 500 likely primary voters.

The telephone survey was conducted by the Glengariff Group, Inc., with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.

The poll also surveyed 500 Democratic primary voters, with Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leading heading into the primary by a significant margin.

In the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Birmingham, had a narrow lead over her Democratic opponents, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, D-Royal Oak and physician Abdul El-Sayed.

The race is being watched nationally because it is widely considered Republican’s best opportunity to flip a seat, with the primary winner expected to face former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers, endorsed by Trump.

The August primary will be an important election for Michigan, with voters able to weigh in for the first time on several major statewide offices.

James leads Republican primary poll by 17 points

Michigan’s Republican gubernatorial primary remains crowded, with five candidates still in the race after former House Speaker Tom Leonard dropped out last week.

They are James, businessman Perry Johnson, former Attorney General Mike Cox, Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township and pastor Ralph Rebandt.

The recent poll found James earning 37% support among likely primary voters, while Johnson took 19.8%. Cox received 9.9%, and Nesbitt earned 6.9%.

Leonard, who was still a candidate at the time the survey was conducted, got 2.6% support, while Rebandt earned 1% of the vote. Another 5% of voters said “someone else,” and 17.6% remained undecided.

All other Republican candidates included in the Detroit Chamber polling have turned in their signatures, as required ahead of the Tuesday, Aug. 5, primary. The deadline to formally request to withdraw was Friday, April 24.

James also had a 10-point-or-greater lead among several specific voter groups, including “definite” primary voters, Republicans who self-identified as “Make American Great Again (MAGA),” those who identified as “classic Republicans,” and voters over the age of 65.

The poll found Cox had strong support from voters under the age of 54.

The results differ from polling conducted by Emerson College and shared earlier this month, which showed James and Johnson within one percentage point of each other among likely primary voters.

The Detroit Chamber poll also asked respondents about candidate name ID and favorability, with James leading among Republican candidates on both measures.

The second-term congressman had 89.5% name ID, with a 55.4% favorability rating, a 14.1% unfavorable rating and 20% of voters answering “no opinion.”

Johnson, who has spent millions of dollars of his own money on pre-primary advertising, had 71.7% name ID, with a 31.3% favorability rating, an 18.6% unfavorable rating and 21.8% of voters answering no opinion.

Cox had 67.9% name ID, while Nesbitt garnered 35.1% and Rebandt had 10.3%.

The poll also found that 41.8% of likely Republican primary voters were more likely to support a candidate if they had the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

Another 27.5% said that endorsement was much more likely to swing their vote, while 48.3% of voters said Trump’s endorsement would have no impact on them.

Trump has not yet endorsed a Republican candidate for governor.

Benson maintains a large primary lead over Swanson.

The Detroit Chamber poll also included results from 500 Democratic primary voters.

Of those, 66% said they favored Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, now running as a Democrat, over her opponent, Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

Swanson earned 8.1% support, while 22.9% of voters were undecided.

Another 2.4% of likely voters volunteered that they would vote for Mike Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit now running as an independent. Duggan won’t face a primary opponent.

Among “definite” primary voters, Benson led 68.9% to 8.3%, with 19.2% undecided.

Benson also maintained a name recognition advantage over Swanson, with 85.6% name ID and 58.5% favorability, compared to 3% unfavorability. Another 24.1% of voters had no opinion, while 14% had not heard of her.

Swanson had 36.4% name ID among likely primary voters, with 11.3% favorability to 4.3% unfavorability.

Stevens leads U.S. Senate primary polling

In a head-to-head matchup, 36% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided about their vote in the U.S. Senate race.

But among those who said they had made up their minds, Stevens led with 24.9% support, compared El-Sayed at 22.9% and McMorrow, at 16%. Another 0.2% of voters said “other” when asked about their favored candidate.

The poll described Stevens’ lead as “very narrow” and “essentially showing a statistical toss-up” with El-Sayed, while McMorrow trailed behind.

That differs from Emerson College’s poll, which found a tie between El-Sayed and McMorrow, while Stevens trailed.

Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat has been labeled a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.

In the latest polling, Stevens continued a two-point lead among “definite” primary voters at 25.2%, while El-Sayed received 23.3% support. McMorrow also gained two points at 17.8%, bringing all candidates within 7.4 points of each other.

“The race shows clear pathways among all three candidates,” a Glengariff polling summary reads.

When it came to name ID, El-Sayed had a narrow advantage at 57.9%, with 24.3% favorability, 5.5% unfavorability and 28.1% answering “no opinion.”

Stevens had 55.7% name ID, with 27.5% favorability, 6.9% unfavorability and 21.3% having no opinion.

McMorrow had 39.7% name ID, with 19% favorability, 4.5% unfavorability and 16.2% answering no opinion.

In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat, Rogers had 87.1% name recognition, with 51.3% favorable and 6.5% unfavorable. Another 29.3% of voters had no opinion of him.

Rogers is expected to secure the Republican nomination in August.

The poll also found that Republican primary voters rated their motivation to vote at 9.4 on a 1-to-10 scale, while Democrats rated theirs at 9.3 on the same scale.

Both Democratic and Republican voters said the economy topped their list of concerns facing Michigan now.