John James

STERLING HEIGHTS, MI – U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, has won a bruising Republican primary for Michigan’s open gubernatorial seat.

He defeated his opponent, businessman and Oakland County entrepreneur Perry Johnson, with just over 50% of the vote in the Tuesday, Aug. 4, primary election.

The Associated Press called the race just before 10:30 p.m. on Tuesday. With an estimated 99% of votes counted on Wednesday afternoon, James had received 50.1%. Johnson earned 35.2%.

Mike Cox, the former Republican attorney general who dropped out of the race in mid-July and endorsed James, still got 13% of the vote. Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township, got 1.8%, after he exited the race in June.

The race between James and Johnson was divisive to the end, similar to the Democratic primary for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat won by progressive Abdul El-Sayed.

Millions of dollars in spending for Johnson was tested against James’ name identification, helped along by a last-minute President Donald Trump endorsement.

Now, Republicans will gear up to face Democratic nominee and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the November general election.

Overcoming nearly $30M spent

Johnson’s campaign spent $29.6 million during this election cycle, according to pre-primary campaign finance disclosures filed on July 24, which don’t cover the final days leading up to the August primary.

The vast majority of that money was from his own pocket.

Of the $30.8 million he raised, all but $125 was directly from Johnson himself.

The largest sums of that were spent on consulting and advertising, including through businesses at least partially owned by his campaign manager and political consultant John Yob.

Johnson used the money to pump out pre-primary ads, many of which criticized James. That included a six-minute long, artificial intelligence-generated ad on YouTube that accused James of refusing to debate and depicted Johnson chasing him down – literally.

Johnson also ran ads referring to James – the only Black person in the race – as a “DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) candidate.” When asked about the ad, Johnson said it stemmed from a series of awards his family’s company, the James Group, has won for diversity.

James wasn’t a small spender by any means.

His campaign raised $7.3 million in private funds, prior to disclosing several rounds of late contributions that totaled thousands more dollars. He spent $5.96 million.

James also drew scrutiny from Johnson’s campaign when he applied for and received public funding, an option available to gubernatorial candidates under Michigan law. He was the only candidate to take advantage of the program, receiving just over $258,000 and spending $244,120.

And a superPAC supporting James, Mission Michigan, brought in nearly $2.5 million and spent $5.4 million on consulting, pro-James ads and “media placements” opposing his primary competitors.

But that funding seemed small in comparison to the millions Johnson pumped into the race.

Grassroots criticism and President Donald Trump

It’s not fully clear what combination of factors pushed James over the finish line to victory, despite Johnson’s spending.

For State Rep. Mike Harris, R-Waterford Township, who spoke with MLive Tuesday prior to the race being called, James’ strength as a candidate is his experience having “lived the American dream,” referring to his business and military experience.

He previously led his family’s business, James Group International, and spent eight years in the U.S. Army as a Ranger-qualified aviation officer.

As a two-term congressman who also ran two previously unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaigns, James has significant name identification that benefited him in early polls.

And state Rep. Joseph Aragona, R-Clinton Township, who represents a portion of Macomb County, highlighted James’ wins in Congress, like his role in bringing new investments to the nearby Selfridge Air National Guard Base.

At the same time, James faced criticism from grassroots members of his party, mainly due to his planned departure from Congress, which could endanger Republicans’ narrow majority.

It wasn’t helped along by a lack of early debate attendance that at one point led Oakland County Republican Party Chair Vance Patrick to issue a public statement, where he called James’ decision to not participate in a debate held by his party “very disappointing.”

Patrick said the party’s volunteers put “significant time, sweat and money towards electing James in the past - only to have him turn up his nose at them.”

And Johnson painted James as a career politician in some early March ads.

So a late-in-the-game endorsement by Trump didn’t seem to hurt.

“Trump likes him,” said James watch party attendee Tom Holden, when asked about the reasons behind his support.

Farmington Hills resident Bob Ozog, who spoke with MLive outside the Milford Proving Ground where Trump talked a little over a week ago, described a Trump endorsement as a “plus right off the bat.”

House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, who also spoke with reporters before Trump’s July 27 speech, called Trump a “great unifier” and pointed to the president’s appearance as a “big boost” for the James campaign.

And other Republican candidates, like Cox and Nesbitt, dropped out and pledged support for James following the endorsement.

Jocelyn Benson

Now, it’s not fully clear how the tough primary between Johnson and James and the Trump endorsement will impact the upcoming general election.

For Don Zinman, a professor of political science at Grand Valley State University, it could be a burden or a benefit.

Zinman said primaries can be “very damaging,” especially in instances where the winner isn’t able to capture the support of their opponent.

He gave the example of the 2016 presidential primary between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. “Some of them just never got over it and took a walk at Election Day.”

“The side that loses, their supporters sometimes can be very upset,” he said. “It takes time to heal wounds, and sometimes the wounds don’t fully heal by November.”

James has not yet received Johnson’s endorsement.

Instead, Johnson wrote in a concession statement on social media Tuesday night that “the career politicians and special interests may win tonight, but they will not win the future.”

But other Republicans across Michigan were quick to issue statements in support of James. The state Republican Party wasted no time in seeking to join together the top of the ticket, hosting a unity luncheon the day after the election with James and U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers, among others.

And the Republican Governors Association called James a “leader who can deliver results.”

Zinman said in this case, it’s also possible the tough primary makes James stronger, sharpening his message and debate.

In a victory speech on Tuesday, James said “the primary is over. Now we come together.” He encouraged Michiganders who may feel “politically homeless” to join the campaign and usher in the state’s comeback.

And James called Benson a “part of the leadership that got us lost in the first place.”

Benson, who won her Tuesday primary in a landslide with over 80% of the vote, has moved through a less divisive primary. Prior to the polls opening, she had already reserved $10 million in September general election ad time.

“The reservation underscores Benson’s commanding position ahead of tomorrow’s primary and solidifies her strong position in the general,” her campaign shared in a press release.

Benson’s pre-primary campaign finance disclosure, which did not account for a series of late contributions, found her campaign has brought in $10.7 million this election cycle.

Benson now has $6.4 million on hand going into the general election, compared to nearly $1.4 million for James’ campaign and around $1.9 million for Mission Michigan.

Trump’s primary endorsement could also play a role in the general election, especially as James seeks to attract a slate of voters that previously backed independent candidate and former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who dropped out earlier this year.

While there were nearly 1.5 million ballots cast in the Democratic primary, Republicans saw lower turnout, with slightly fewer than 930,000 ballots cast.

Prior to Trump’s Michigan visit last week, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel welcomed the second-term president’s appearance, pointing to an ongoing Iran War that’s driven up gas prices.

And political consultant Jeff Timmer called Trump ties “kryptonite to November voters.”

But for Republicans like Hall, the strategy of aligning with Trump is one that’s worked well in the past.

Prior to Trump’s Michigan visit, Hall pointed to a 2024 campaign strategy of leaning in and embracing Trump, which he said resulted in Republicans taking control of the state House that November.

Zinman said that could prove more complicated this cycle. He sees a number of Trump voters that don’t appear to turn out unless the president is also on the ballot.

“Even if he endorses a candidate, and he tells his supporters to vote for him, they just sometimes don’t make it to the polls.”

He also pointed to a midterm “enthusiasm gap” that could boost Democrats if they focus on affordability, similar to what he said Republicans saw during the last midterm election.