John James

Michigan's GOP gubernatorial primary race has transformed into tossup, according to a recent poll, raising the stakes in the final stretch of the campaign as the candidates compete for President Donald Trump's support and flood the airwaves.

Among likely GOP voters in the Tuesday, Aug. 4 primary, 28% support U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township, 27% back former Attorney General Mike Cox and 23% said if the election were held today, they would vote for businessman Perry Johnson, according to the Lansing-based Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc.'s survey conducted for insider capitol newsletter Michigan Information & Research Service Inc.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, pollster Steve Mitchell said in a statement that the survey reveals a close "three-way race" in the Republican contest to decide the party's nominee to replace Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who cannot run again due to term limits. Senate Majority Leader Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township, is also running, but has lagged in the polls, including this one, which shows him with only 4% of the likely Republican primary vote.

Previous polling has generally shown James in the lead. But, the news release from Mitchell with the latest numbers states Cox "has surged into a statistical dead heat" with the congressman. Cox celebrated, saying in a statement that his "campaign has all the momentum in this race." He described himself as "a fighter who has beaten Democrats statewide twice." Before serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, James lost two statewide runs for U.S. Senate.

James' campaign manager, Jackson Gross, cast doubt on the Mitchell poll, citing another survey commissioned by the pro-James PAC Mission Michigan. "The only things spreading faster than ticks are fake polls, but the real ones show John James with a double-digit lead," he said in a statement. The Johnson and Nesbitt campaigns did not immediately comment on the Mitchell poll.

Polls offer just a snapshot of the electorate's sentiment during a moment in the campaign. This one was conducted June 11-13 by sending text messages to a random group of Michigan voters with an online survey and includes responses from about 400 of them.

All Republican gubernatorial primary candidates have campaigned on a similar platform, including calls to cut income and property taxes and slash what they see as wasteful government spending. Instead of a primary focused on issues, pundits see a fight for a Trump endorsement.

They see Trump's intervention in the primary as a boon for his chosen candidate, but note that the president seems to be more focused on federal races as he tries to preserve Republican congressional control. If the president does weigh in on the governor's race in Michigan before the primary, political observers expect him to wait until the last minute when polling indicates a clear winner. But this latest survey showing a highly competitive race muddies the picture for now.

Against the backdrop of the president's dismal numbers nationally that Democrats bet will sink GOP chances in the midterm elections, the Mitchell poll shows Trump enjoys a high approval rating among Republicans. On the Democratic side of the Michigan governor's race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson in the primary. Mitchell's latest survey did not poll Democratic voters, but others have shown Benson with a commanding lead in the race.