John James

Democrat Jocelyn Benson has taken the lead in the Michigan governor’s race as support slips for former Detroit mayor Mike Duggan, according to a Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce poll released today.

Benson, who is Michigan’s secretary of state and the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, has opened up a five-percentage-point lead over Republican Congressman John James in a three-way matchup, according to the statewide phone survey of 600 likely voters.

At the same time, support for Duggan, a former Democrat who is mounting an independent run, has plummeted among Democrats, the poll found.

In a three-way matchup, about 34 percent of voters surveyed said they supported Benson, 29 percent supported James and 23 percent supported Duggan. About 13 percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.

A February Chamber poll showed all three candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Duggan even slightly in the lead.

“Michiganders are rallying behind Jocelyn Benson because she’s the only candidate in the race focused on lowering costs, raising wages and protecting our rights and freedoms,” Benson Campaign Manager Nikki Goldschein said in a statement.

“Meanwhile, after spending $12 million, the ‘Independent’ is stuck in a distant third place and losing ground – just as polling has shown for months,” she added. “And the Republican candidates are too busy bending the knee to Donald Trump to actually focus on the needs of Michiganders.”

What’s happened since is that Democratic voters, particularly those who the poll identified as “leaning Democratic” have shifted from Duggan to Benson.

Richard Czuba of the Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll, has an explanation.

“The most important number in this poll is Donald Trump’s job approval, which sits at 37%,” he said.

As dissatisfaction with Trump grows, Democratic voters are consolidating their opposition.

“It is an anti-Trump vote,” he said, “and they are moving behind their Democratic nominees.”

Duggan offered a similar explanation. Earlier in the campaign, voters wanted to talk about local issues such as affordable housing, he said in an afternoon press conference.

“You could feel in the last six or eight weeks, talking to those same people, all they want to talk about is the Iran war and $5 a gallon gas and how it’s affecting them,” he said. “So you could definitely feel the shift in focus on priorities.”

When Democrat Chedrick Greene won a special election for state Senate with 60% of the vote, “I thought, ‘Wow, this next poll is going to be ugly,’” Duggan said. “When I saw Benson was only at 34%, I was pretty relieved. So I’ve got work to do.”

Support for James, in the meantime, has remained flat, which his campaign chalked up as a win.

“John James has outrun $30 million in combined spending from Perry Johnson and Mike Duggan because Michigan voters recognize real leadership over purchased politics,” campaign spokeswoman Hannah Osantowske said in a post on X.

James, she added, “will win the #MIGov primary and make Michigan affordable again.”