Roger Marshall

Adam Hamilton, the pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the country, launched a U.S. Senate campaign in Kansas as a Democrat for this year's midterm elections against Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances at winning control of the Senate in the midterms and are hoping to expand the battleground into more conservative states like Kansas, Montana and Nebraska. Hamilton enters the race with high name recognition and could be a formidable candidate against Marshall, who was elected in 2020.

Newsweek reached out to the Hamilton and Marshall campaigns for comment via email.

Adam Hamilton’s Chances in Kansas Senate Race

Hamilton considered running as an independent, casting himself as someone who could bridge divides in a highly polarized political climate, to his congregation. But he ultimately launched his campaign on Thursday.

“I love our state, and I love our people,” he said in a video announcing his candidacy. “That’s why I can’t sit still and watch what’s happening to Kansas and our country. Instead of fixing things, we have a government in Washington that’s making life harder for Kansans.”

Only one poll has been made public of the race, and it shows Marshall with an early lead over Hamilton. The Tavern Research poll showed Marshall leading Hamilton by 8 points. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they would back Marshall, compared to 46 percent for Hamilton.

However, it found that Hamilton would have held a lead if he had run as an independent. In that scenario, he received support from 51 percent of respondents, compared to Marshall's 49 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,013 likely voters from January 26-28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It found that a narrow majority of Kansans—52 percent—do not approve of President Donald Trump, while 45 percent do. Trump’s approval rating looms over the midterm elections. Historically, the party that is in the White House loses seats, and Trump’s declining polling numbers threaten to weaken candidates in key races.

Marshall’s favorability sat at 37 percent in the poll, while 38 percent said they did not view him favorably.

Marshall’s chief of staff, Brent Robertson, responded to Hamilton’s entry into the race in a statement to Newsweek.

“Based upon decades of his own public statements, if Hamilton wins the Democrat primary, he will be the most liberal nominee in Kansas history—and it’s really not even close,” he said.

Republicans are also favored in prediction markets. Marshall had a 77 percent chance in Kalshi and an 82 percent chance in Polymarket of winning against a Democratic candidate in November as of Thursday afternoon. Prediction markets measure trader sentiment about current events, but do not always accurately predict future events.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball views it as Likely Republican.

Hamilton lives in the town of Stillwell, in Johnson County, which is home to Kansas City suburbs that have shifted leftward over the past decade. He is the founding pastor of the Church of the Resurrection and has served in the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives, according to his official church biography.

He has also published dozens of books and video-based lessons that are popular for Sunday school classes in churches across the country.

He describes himself as “a liberal conservative and a conservative liberal.”

He said during a listening tour earlier this year that he voted against a state constitutional amendment that would have cleared the way for tougher abortion restrictions or a ban in Kansas.

“I didn’t think that our state legislators should be the ethicists and the spiritual guides for all of the women of the state of Kansas,” he said.

Democrats Have Dreamed of Turning Kansas Blue, But It Remains Red

The leftward shift and growth of Kansas City's suburbs have fueled Democratic optimism that Kansas City could become an emerging swing state. Democrats have improved their margins in Kansas, but it’s still considered to be solidly Republican.

In 2024, Trump carried Kansas by about 16 points. He won it by about 15 points in 2020 and 20 points in 2016. Mitt Romney won Kansas by nearly 22 points in 2012, while John McCain won it by about 15 points in 2008.

The state is led by Democratic Governor Laura Kelly, who won in 2018 and 2022.

Democrats also made a play for Kansas’ Senate race in 2022, but Marshall defeated Democrat Barbara Bollier by more than 11 points.

This article includes reporting by the Associated Press.